What Happens to Ukraine? The Russian Threat and the Future of East European Security

The preeminent strategic challenge that Kyiv faces during the next years in terms of nation-building and economic development will be how to provide for the state’s security against the myriad of Russian hybrid war measures against Ukraine–above all against another armed intervention by Moscow.

There are six alternatives for the evolution of Ukrainian international embeddedness may or may not materialize in the foreseeable future. The probability of a realization of the first set-up, the grey-zone-scenario, in the foreseeable future is far higher than that of the other subsequently outlined scenarios. Five further trajectories - Finlandization, EU accession, NATO membership, Major Non-NATO Ally of the US & the Intermarium - involve the conclusion of a fundamental new treaty in Eastern Europe. While they are so far all more or less unlikely, they may become more probable in case of major novel developments within the domestic affairs or/and international relations of the various states and organizations involved in the so-called “Ukraine Crisis.”

* Cursul se ține în limba engleză.